The DUP faces a closely contested battle within unionism as Sinn Féin records a six-point increase in support ahead of the 2027 Northern Ireland Assembly election.
A new LucidTalk opinion poll has revealed significant changes in Northern Ireland’s political landscape, with Sinn Féin increasing its support while the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has fallen to 14%.
The poll, published by the Belfast Telegraph on Saturday 7 November, places the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) on 15%, just ahead of both the DUP and Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV), which are tied on 14%.
The results represent a considerable change from the 2022 Assembly election, when the DUP secured 21.3% of first-preference votes.
What Does the Poll Show?
The November 2026 LucidTalk results are:
– Sinn Féin: 28%
– UUP: 15%
– DUP: 14%
– TUV: 14%
– SDLP: 11%
– Alliance: 9%
– Green Party: 4%
– Aontú: 2%
– Others: 2%
– People Before Profit: 1%
The figures leave Sinn Féin 13 percentage points ahead of the UUP and 14 points ahead of the DUP and TUV.
However, the competition within unionism is considerably closer, with the three main unionist parties separated by just one percentage point.
Sinn Féin Records Six-Point Increase
Perhaps the most significant development is Sinn Féin’s recovery since LucidTalk’s July poll.
In July, the party was polling at 22%.
It has now increased to 28%, bringing its support close to the 29% it achieved at the 2022 Assembly election.
The latest poll shows the following changes since July:
– Sinn Féin: Up 6 percentage points
– TUV: Up 2 points
– DUP: Down 1 point
– UUP: Down 1 point
– SDLP: Down 2 points
– Alliance: Down 1 point
The results show Sinn Féin recovering ground lost earlier in the year, while several other parties have experienced smaller movements.
The DUP’s Bigger Problem
Although the DUP has fallen by only one point since July, its longer-term performance tells a different story.
At the 2022 Assembly election:
– DUP received 21.3% of the vote and won 25 seats.
– UUP received 11.2% and won nine seats.
– TUV received 7.6% and won one seat.
The latest poll places the DUP more than seven percentage points below its 2022 electoral performance.
Meanwhile, both the UUP and TUV are polling above their 2022 results.
The UUP was already ahead of the DUP in July, but the latest figures confirm that the three parties remain closely matched in voting intention.
For the DUP, the question is no longer simply how much support it has lost, but how its vote now compares with its main unionist rivals.
Is Unionist Support Actually Falling?
One particularly interesting finding is that combined support for the DUP, UUP and TUV remains unchanged since July.
The three parties received a combined 43% in July.
They are again polling at a combined 43% in November.
This suggests that the movement between these three parties may be more significant than any change in their combined support.
In other words, the latest figures do not show a further decline in their overall combined polling share.
However, how that support is distributed could have important consequences under Northern Ireland’s Single Transferable Vote electoral system.
First-preference votes, candidate selection and transfers between parties will all play a role when Assembly seats are decided.
Carla Lockhart’s Departure Adds Another Dimension
The results come during a period of internal political disagreement within the DUP following the Drumcree parading controversy.
Upper Bann MP Carla Lockhart resigned from the party on Monday 2 November, following disagreements with the leadership over its response to the controversy.
Ms Lockhart now sits at Westminster as an independent unionist MP.
However, the timing of the LucidTalk survey is important.
Polling was conducted between 29 October and 1 November, meaning fieldwork ended before Ms Lockhart formally announced her resignation.
Therefore, while the controversy was already taking place, the results cannot establish the electoral impact of her departure.
Further polling will be needed to assess public reaction following her resignation.
What About the SDLP and Alliance?
Both the SDLP and Alliance have also experienced a decline in support since July.
Alliance has fallen from 10% to 9%.
At the 2022 Assembly election, the party received 13.5% of first-preference votes and secured 17 seats.
The latest figure is therefore 4.5 percentage points below its previous Assembly election performance.
The SDLP has fallen from 13% in July to 11% in November.
However, its latest polling figure remains above the 9.1% it received in 2022, when the party secured eight Assembly seats.
Both parties will be examining how these Northern Ireland-wide figures compare with their support in individual constituencies.
What Does This Mean for Newry and Armagh?
The 2022 Assembly election saw Newry and Armagh return:
– Three Sinn Féin MLAs
– One SDLP MLA
– One DUP MLA
The DUP retained its seat despite facing competition from the TUV and UUP.
In 2022, the DUP received 12.9% of first-preference votes locally, compared with 9.2% for the TUV and 6.6% for the UUP.
The latest Northern Ireland-wide polling figures make the distribution of unionist support an important issue to examine in the constituency ahead of 2027.
There has also been a significant development within the SDLP.
Councillor Pete Byrne has been selected as the party’s Assembly candidate for Newry and Armagh, succeeding sitting MLA Justin McNulty on the party’s election ticket.
The effect of that change will only become clear as the election approaches.
South Down: Another Important Constituency
South Down returned the following representatives in 2022:
– Two Sinn Féin MLAs
– One SDLP MLA
– One DUP MLA
– One Alliance MLA
Alliance secured a seat in the constituency for the first time at that election.
Meanwhile, the DUP successfully retained its representation despite competition from other unionist parties.
The latest poll provides an opportunity to examine whether changes in party support are also occurring locally.
However, national polling figures cannot reliably determine how the five South Down seats will be distributed in 2027.
Upper Bann Faces a Changing Political Landscape
Upper Bann is another constituency attracting attention following recent developments within unionism.
In 2022, the constituency elected:
– Two DUP MLAs
– One Sinn Féin MLA
– One UUP MLA
– One Alliance MLA
However, the political landscape has changed since that election.
Former UUP leader Doug Beattie resigned from the party earlier this year and now sits as an independent MLA.
The UUP has selected Councillor Kyle Savage to contest Upper Bann at the next Assembly election.
Carla Lockhart’s resignation from the DUP has also added to the political debate in the constituency, although she currently represents Upper Bann at Westminster rather than Stormont.
The latest polling figures highlight why Upper Bann will be an important constituency to examine in future election analysis.
The Road to May 2027
Northern Ireland’s next Assembly and council elections are scheduled for Thursday 6 May 2027.
Arrangements for holding both elections on the same day remain subject to parliamentary approval of the relevant regulations.
The November LucidTalk poll highlights several developments:
– Sinn Féin has recovered six percentage points since July.
– The DUP is polling substantially below its 2022 Assembly election vote share.
– The UUP remains narrowly ahead of the DUP and TUV.
– The TUV has increased its support since July.
– Alliance and the SDLP have both recorded declines since the summer poll.
However, an opinion poll is a snapshot of voting intentions rather than an election result.
Northern Ireland’s electoral system also means that national vote percentages cannot be translated directly into Assembly seats.
The most significant finding is the emergence of an exceptionally close contest between the DUP, UUP and TUV, while Sinn Féin holds a substantial lead in the latest Northern Ireland-wide poll.
With six months remaining until the scheduled Assembly election, candidate selection, constituency campaigns and voter transfers will become increasingly important.
For now, the November LucidTalk poll provides an indication of how party support has changed since the summer and how the political contest is developing ahead of May 2027.
Clanrye News will continue examining the latest polling and its implications for Newry and Armagh, South Down and Upper Bann.
ENDS