Clanrye News examines how the Upper Bann political landscape could change if the former DUP MP contests the next Assembly election as an independent unionist or a TUV candidate.
Carla Lockhart’s departure from the Democratic Unionist Party has opened up an intriguing political question: could her next move cost the DUP one of its two Assembly seats in Upper Bann?
With Northern Ireland’s next scheduled Assembly election taking place on Thursday, 6 May 2027, the political fallout from Lockhart’s resignation could extend well beyond Westminster.
The Upper Bann MP has confirmed her intention to continue as an independent unionist and contest the next Westminster election. She has not announced plans to stand for the Assembly or join the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV).
However, an examination of previous election results suggests that either possibility could have significant consequences for the DUP.
Clanrye News has examined three hypothetical scenarios using the actual 2022 Assembly election as a fixed baseline.
The findings suggest that a Lockhart candidacy could put the DUP’s second seat under considerable pressure, while also creating opportunities for Sinn Féin and changing the battle for the constituency’s fifth seat.
The starting point: Upper Bann in 2022
At the May 2022 Assembly election, the DUP successfully returned two MLAs, while Sinn Féin, the Ulster Unionist Party and Alliance each secured one seat.
The constituency recorded 56,101 valid votes, producing an electoral quota of 9,351.
The first-preference results were:
| Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Sinn Féin | 16,502 | 29.4% |
| DUP | 15,417 | 27.5% |
| UUP | 8,566 | 15.3% |
| Alliance | 6,440 | 11.5% |
| TUV | 4,373 | 7.8% |
| SDLP | 3,645 | 6.5% |
| Others | 1,158 | 2.1% |
The successful candidates were John O’Dowd of Sinn Féin, Jonathan Buckley and Diane Dodds of the DUP, Doug Beattie of the UUP and Eóin Tennyson of Alliance.
But there was one particularly interesting result.
Alliance’s Eóin Tennyson secured the final seat with 8,964.78 votes, finishing just 376.07 votes ahead of Sinn Féin’s Liam Mackle.
It was an extraordinarily close contest and demonstrated how relatively small changes in voting patterns and transfers could alter the constituency’s representation.
The TUV also attracted 4,373 first-preference votes, establishing a sizeable electoral base outside the DUP.
Those votes would become particularly important in any scenario involving Carla Lockhart.
Scenario one: The 2022 result is repeated
Our first scenario assumes that the political landscape remains broadly unchanged and that the 2022 first-preference votes and transfer patterns are repeated.
Under those conditions, the constituency would return the same political balance:
- DUP: 2 seats
- Sinn Féin: 1 seat
- UUP: 1 seat
- Alliance: 1 seat
For the DUP, this represents the most favourable of our three central scenarios.
The party would retain its two seats, while the UUP would maintain its position and Alliance would narrowly hold off Sinn Féin’s challenge.
However, the 2022 figures expose an underlying vulnerability.
Sinn Féin actually received more first-preference votes than the DUP, despite returning only one MLA.
Its second candidate came remarkably close to winning a seat.
If Sinn Féin manages to improve its candidate balance or benefit from more favourable transfers in 2027, it could challenge for a second MLA even without a major change in overall support.
Scenario two: Carla Lockhart stands as an independent unionist
The second scenario introduces Carla Lockhart as an independent unionist Assembly candidate.
This is particularly interesting because she would be competing directly for voters who previously supported the DUP, while potentially attracting support from other unionist parties.
For our illustrative model, we assume Lockhart secures 30% of the DUP’s 2022 first-preference vote, 25% of the TUV vote and 10% of the UUP vote.
Under those assumptions, the revised first-preference totals would be approximately:
| Party | Modelled votes |
|---|---|
| Sinn Féin | 16,502 |
| DUP | 10,792 |
| UUP | 7,709 |
| Lockhart (Independent) | 6,575 |
| Alliance | 6,440 |
| SDLP | 3,645 |
| TUV | 3,280 |
| Others | 1,158 |
These figures are not polling results. They are a mathematical test of what could happen if existing unionist voters redistributed their support.
The implications for the DUP are significant.
Its first-preference total would fall from 15,417 to approximately 10,792, leaving the party with a much more difficult task in retaining two MLAs.
Meanwhile, Lockhart would enter the contest with around 6,575 first-preference votes, placing her ahead of Alliance’s original 2022 total.
Her prospects would depend heavily on transfers, particularly from eliminated unionist candidates.
If Lockhart could attract substantial TUV and UUP transfers, she might be capable of securing a seat.
Our central illustrative outcome would be Sinn Féin 1, DUP 1, UUP 1, Alliance 1 and Lockhart 1.
However, a second possibility could see Sinn Féin gain a seat at Alliance’s expense, producing Sinn Féin 2, DUP 1, UUP 1 and Lockhart 1.
The central finding is that an independent Lockhart could replace a DUP MLA without necessarily reducing the number of unionist representatives elected.
Scenario three: Carla Lockhart stands for the TUV
The third scenario could prove even more difficult for the DUP.
Although Lockhart has indicated that she does not intend to join another political party, we have examined what might happen if that position changed and she contested Upper Bann as a TUV candidate.
Unlike an independent campaign, this would provide Lockhart with an established party organisation and an existing electoral base.
In 2022, TUV candidate Darrin Foster secured 4,373 first-preference votes.
Our model assumes that a Lockhart TUV candidacy retains that support while attracting 30% of the DUP’s previous vote and 5% of the UUP vote.
That would produce the following illustrative first-preference totals:
| Party | Modelled votes |
|---|---|
| Sinn Féin | 16,502 |
| DUP | 10,792 |
| TUV (Lockhart) | 9,426 |
| UUP | 8,138 |
| Alliance | 6,440 |
| SDLP | 3,645 |
| Others | 1,158 |
Under this model, Lockhart would secure approximately 9,426 first-preference votes.
That is slightly above the 2022 Assembly quota of 9,351.
While the actual quota in 2027 could differ, the figures demonstrate how a prominent candidate could turn the TUV’s existing electoral support into a serious challenge.
The impact on the DUP would be especially significant.
In 2022, transfers from the eliminated TUV candidate helped the DUP secure its two seats.
If the TUV instead had a candidate capable of winning, those votes could remain with the party rather than transferring to the DUP.
Our central illustrative outcome would be Sinn Féin 1, DUP 1, UUP 1, Alliance 1 and TUV 1.
Again, Sinn Féin gaining a second seat at Alliance’s expense remains another possible outcome.
The TUV scenario would therefore offer Lockhart a potentially stronger starting position than the independent scenario, although the party label could also discourage some moderate unionist voters from supporting her.
The three scenarios compared
The following table shows the central seat outcomes tested by Clanrye News.
| Party | 2022 baseline | Lockhart independent | Lockhart TUV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sinn Féin | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| DUP | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| UUP | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Alliance | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Independent | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| TUV | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Total | 5 | 5 | 5 |
These are illustrative outcomes based on specified vote movements, rather than definitive forecasts or completed STV count simulations.
The real election would depend on declared candidates, changing voter preferences, turnout and the distribution of transfers.
Nevertheless, the results highlight one consistent feature.
In both hypothetical Lockhart candidacy scenarios, the DUP’s second Assembly seat comes under serious pressure.
The Sinn Féin factor
While attention may focus on the prospect of a DUP-TUV or DUP-independent battle, Sinn Féin could also have an important role in determining the final result.
In 2022, Sinn Féin received 16,502 first-preference votes, considerably more than the DUP’s 15,417.
Despite this, it secured just one Assembly seat.
Its second candidate finished only 376.07 votes behind Alliance in the race for the final seat.
That result suggests Sinn Féin could be competitive for a second seat in 2027.
A split in the unionist vote would not automatically deliver that outcome, because transfers between unionist candidates could preserve unionist representation.
However, changes in the order of eliminations, candidate vote management and transfer behaviour could make the battle for the fifth seat extremely close.
Alliance, which achieved its Upper Bann breakthrough in 2022, would therefore have a particular interest in how the contest develops.
What about Lockhart’s Westminster vote?
The 2024 general election provides another interesting piece of evidence.
Lockhart secured 21,642 votes in Upper Bann, representing 45.7% of the vote, and defeated Sinn Féin’s Catherine Nelson by 7,406 votes.
It was an impressive victory, but one achieved while representing the DUP.
The key question is how many of those voters supported Lockhart personally and how many voted for the party.
That distinction could become decisive if she contested an election against her former colleagues.
The 21,642 votes cannot simply be transferred into an Assembly projection because Westminster uses a different electoral system and attracts different patterns of tactical voting.
It nevertheless demonstrates Lockhart’s established political profile within the constituency.
There is also an important legal consideration. As a sitting Westminster MP, Lockhart could not permanently hold both a House of Commons seat and an Assembly seat. If elected to Stormont, she would have to choose which position to retain within the statutory period.
An important warning about boundaries
The 2027 Assembly election will also take place using revised constituency boundaries introduced for Westminster in 2024.
This means the electorate will not be identical to the one that voted in the 2022 Assembly election.
Our three scenarios deliberately retain the original 2022 vote totals to provide a consistent historical comparison.
They should therefore be viewed as preliminary modelling exercises rather than boundary-adjusted predictions for May 2027.
Could Lockhart reshape the Upper Bann contest?
The resignation of Carla Lockhart has undoubtedly created a new political challenge for the DUP.
But it is important to distinguish between what has happened and what might happen next.
Lockhart has confirmed she will remain active in politics as an independent unionist MP. She has not announced an Assembly candidacy or a move to the TUV.
Our scenarios explore the consequences should either possibility materialise.
The central finding is that the DUP’s second Upper Bann Assembly seat could become vulnerable if a substantial proportion of its supporters move behind Lockhart.
Standing for the TUV might provide her with a stronger initial electoral base, while standing independently could offer wider appeal across different strands of unionism.
But neither route guarantees success.
Meanwhile, Sinn Féin’s narrow failure to secure a second MLA in 2022 means the battle for the final seat could become equally important.
The question facing unionism in Upper Bann may not simply be whether Carla Lockhart can win an Assembly seat, but which existing party would lose one if she does.
And with the DUP defending two seats, Alliance protecting a narrow 2022 victory and Sinn Féin seeking further gains, Upper Bann could become one of the most fascinating constituencies to watch in May 2027.
ENDS