Reports of a potential leadership challenge involving Paul Givan have emerged as Carla Lockhart prepares to announce her political future, raising fresh questions about the DUP’s direction ahead of the 2027 Assembly election.
The Democratic Unionist Party is facing renewed internal turmoil following reports that it has split into three rival factions, with one group allegedly favouring the replacement of party leader Gavin Robinson.
An exclusive report published by the Belfast Telegraph on Sunday (1 November) claims that divisions within the party have intensified as Upper Bann MP Carla Lockhart considers her political future.
The newspaper reports that a faction described by party sources as the “Lisburn Mafia” is associated with Education Minister Paul Givan, Assembly Speaker Edwin Poots and Upper Bann MLA Jonathan Buckley. According to the report, the alleged grouping favours Givan replacing Robinson as DUP leader.
No formal leadership challenge has been announced, however, and the individuals named have not publicly confirmed involvement in an organised attempt to remove Robinson.
Is Gavin Robinson facing a leadership challenge?
Robinson, who became DUP leader in 2024 following the resignation of Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, faces significant internal disagreement over the party’s handling of the Drumcree parading controversy.
The dispute centres on First Minister Michelle O’Neill’s participation in an unnotified protest on the Garvaghy Road in Portadown in September. O’Neill and other Sinn Féin representatives have been interviewed by police investigating the protest. The investigation is ongoing; their participation does not amount to a criminal conviction.
Lockhart has argued that the DUP should withdraw Deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly from office. Under Northern Ireland’s power-sharing arrangements, that would also leave O’Neill’s position as First Minister vacant and seriously disrupt the operation of the Executive.
Robinson has rejected that course for now, arguing that collapsing the Executive would damage public services and could benefit Sinn Féin politically. Instead, on 29 October, the DUP announced an end to joint official engagements involving O’Neill and Little-Pengelly, and said it would withhold agreement for solo engagements undertaken on behalf of their joint office.
Lockhart maintains that those measures do not go far enough, turning a disagreement over Stormont tactics into a wider test of Robinson’s authority.
Who are the alleged “Lisburn Mafia”?
Perhaps the most significant element of the Belfast Telegraph report is the suggestion that Paul Givan could emerge as an alternative leader.
Givan is a former First Minister and currently serves as Education Minister. He previously held the First Minister’s office during Edwin Poots’s brief period as DUP leader in 2021. Poots now serves as Speaker of the Northern Ireland Assembly.
Buckley, the DUP MLA for Upper Bann, is listed by the party as its Director of Elections and Campaigns. Yet his public response to the latest dispute does not fit neatly into a single camp.
In an article published on 31 October, Buckley warned that withdrawing from the Executive could strengthen Sinn Féin at the ballot box. He invited DUP leader Robinson, UUP leader Jon Burrows and TUV leader Jim Allister to talks about wider unionist cooperation.
Allister rejected the proposed talks, arguing that unity would need to be based on substantive political agreement rather than simply bringing party leaders together.
Buckley’s intervention highlights an important distinction: criticism of DUP strategy or leadership is not necessarily the same as support for collapsing Stormont. The claimed “Lisburn Mafia” grouping and its alleged preference for Givan remain reports attributed to unnamed party sources, not independently established facts.
Lockhart’s next move could prove decisive
Lockhart resigned as a DUP party officer on 22 October, but has not announced that she is leaving the party itself. She indicated on 30 October that she would set out her future early next week.
Reports suggest she could initially sit at Westminster as an independent unionist if she departs, while speculation about a possible future move to the TUV remains unconfirmed.
If she leaves the party but retains her Upper Bann parliamentary seat, DUP representation at Westminster would drop from five MPs to four – the party’s lowest total since before the 2001 general election. The DUP won ten Westminster seats in 2017.
Robinson has publicly said he hopes Lockhart will stay. Her departure would not automatically trigger a leadership contest, but it could intensify questions about the DUP’s direction ahead of the next election.
Divisions extend beyond Westminster
South Down MLA Diane Forsythe also supported calls for O’Neill to be removed from office. She proposed, as a minimum alternative, ending official First Minister engagements through the joint Executive Office – a measure subsequently adopted by the leadership.
Her intervention demonstrates that Lockhart is not the only DUP representative unhappy with the response, while also showing that party figures differ on how far sanctions should go.
Polling adds to the pressure
An October More in Common survey placed Sinn Féin on 30%, the DUP on 18%, the UUP on 13%, the TUV on 11%, and Alliance and the SDLP on 9% each. The poll surveyed 1,019 adults between 9 and 20 October, before Lockhart resigned as a party officer.
The DUP, UUP and TUV together accounted for 42% of voting intentions, underlining the scale of competition within unionism. Among DUP voters, 53% supported withdrawing from the Executive over Drumcree and 31% opposed it. Across all respondents, only 27% regarded the dispute as sufficient reason for a party to withdraw, while 49% disagreed.
Robinson is therefore caught between two political pressures: much of the DUP’s core electorate favours a stronger response, but the wider public is significantly less supportive of an Executive withdrawal. The survey does not measure reaction to the leadership allegations published on 1 November.
Could history repeat itself?
The party experienced a dramatic leadership upheaval in 2021, when Arlene Foster was forced out, Edwin Poots briefly led the DUP and Sir Jeffrey Donaldson subsequently took over. Robinson became leader in 2024.
The earlier crisis demonstrated how quickly divisions can lead to a leadership change. But the current circumstances are not identical. Robinson remains in charge, no ballot has been called and there is no confirmed public evidence that a majority of elected DUP representatives want him removed.
What could this mean for the 2027 election?
Combined Northern Ireland Assembly and local council elections are scheduled for Thursday 6 May 2027, subject to the relevant parliamentary approval of the arrangements for combined polling.
Upper Bann is likely to attract particular attention. The DUP won two Assembly seats in the constituency in 2022, while Lockhart has served as its MP since 2019. A departure could complicate the party’s organisation and campaign locally.
In South Down, Forsythe will be seeking to defend the DUP’s Assembly representation. In Newry and Armagh, the party will likewise be seeking to protect its existing seat against competition from across the political spectrum.
Under the single transferable vote system, candidate strength, local first preferences and transfers all matter. A Northern Ireland-wide opinion poll cannot be directly converted into a constituency seat forecast.
What happens next?
The immediate focus is Lockhart’s anticipated announcement. Attention will then turn to whether Givan or other senior DUP figures publicly address the allegation that an alternative leadership team is being discussed.
For now, Robinson remains party leader and a formal challenge has not been declared. But the reported factions, public disagreements over Stormont and competition from rival unionist parties create a difficult political environment only six months before voters return to the polls.
The central question is whether the DUP can resolve its disagreements and enter the 2027 election united – or whether the current divisions develop into a deeper struggle over the party’s leadership and future direction.
ENDS