Sinn Féin and Aontú have both recorded increases in support in the Republic of Ireland, according to new polling figures attributed to the Business Post/Red C October 2026 survey, while Fine Gael has suffered a three-point decline.
The figures, shared by Aontú leader Peadar Tóibín, place Sinn Féin on 22%, up one percentage point, with Aontú also rising one point to 8%.
The results put Sinn Féin seven points ahead of both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, which are level on 15%.
However, the figures also reveal a broader change in Irish politics, with smaller parties including Aontú and Independent Ireland recording support considerably higher than their results in the 2024 general election.
latest opinion poll figures
– Sinn Féin: 22% (+1)
– Fianna Fáil: 15% (+1)
– Fine Gael: 15% (-3)
– Social Democrats: 9% (-2)
– Aontú: 8% (+1)
– Independent Ireland: 8% (+3)
– Labour: 4% (unchanged)
– People Before Profit–Solidarity: 4% (+1)
– Green Party: 3% (unchanged)
– Independents: 11% (-2)
The reported changes are compared with the previous Red C survey.
sinn féin increases support but remains below its 2020 election performance
For Sinn Féin, the latest figures represent an improvement on its performance in the November 2024 general election.
Under Mary Lou McDonald’s leadership, the party secured 19% of first-preference votes in that election, winning 39 seats in Dáil Éireann.
Its latest reported polling figure of 22% represents an increase of three percentage points compared with that election result.
However, the longer-term picture is more complicated.
At the 2020 general election, Sinn Féin achieved 24.5% of first-preference votes, meaning the party’s latest reported support remains below the level it achieved six years ago.
The party has also experienced fluctuations throughout 2026. An Ireland Thinks poll published earlier this month placed Sinn Féin on 19%, while September’s Red C survey recorded 21%.
The latest figure therefore represents a modest improvement in Red C’s polling, rather than evidence of an uninterrupted increase in support.
Nevertheless, Sinn Féin continues to record support above both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael in the latest reported survey.
aontú’s growth becomes an increasingly significant political story
Perhaps one of the most notable longer-term developments is the growth in support for Aontú.
Founded in 2019 by former Sinn Féin TD Peadar Tóibín, the party has recorded substantial increases in its national vote share and recent polling figures.
At the 2020 general election, Aontú secured just 1.9% of first-preference votes, winning one Dáil seat.
Four years later, in November 2024, its vote share increased to 3.9%, with the party winning two seats.
Now, according to the latest figures, Aontú is polling at 8%.
That represents more than double its 2024 general election vote share and more than four times its 2020 result.
Importantly, the figure is not an isolated occurrence.
Aontú also reached 8% in Ireland Thinks surveys published in September and October 2026.
While the results come from different polling companies, the repeated figures provide evidence that Aontú is attracting a level of national support substantially above its previous general election performances.
Peadar Tóibín welcomed the latest figures, describing them as another record result for his party.
two parties with a shared political history
There is another interesting dimension to the simultaneous increases recorded by Sinn Féin and Aontú.
Peadar Tóibín spent more than two decades in Sinn Féin before leaving the party in November 2018 following disagreements over abortion legislation.
He subsequently established Aontú in January 2019.
Although both parties advocate Irish reunification, they differ on several major policy issues, particularly abortion.
Aontú also campaigns on housing, healthcare, immigration and government accountability, while Sinn Féin continues to place considerable emphasis on housing affordability, public services and economic policy.
The fact that both parties have increased in the same survey is noteworthy.
However, the figures do not establish whether the parties are attracting support from similar groups of voters, or whether their increases are coming from entirely different sections of the electorate.
fine gael suffers largest decline as government parties remain below 2024 levels
The figures also raise questions about the standing of the two main government parties.
Fine Gael has recorded a three-point decline to 15%, while Fianna Fáil has increased slightly to the same figure.
Together, the two parties now account for 30% of voting intentions in the reported survey.
At the November 2024 general election, Fianna Fáil secured 21.9% of first-preference votes and Fine Gael received 20.8%.
Their combined result was 42.7%.
Comparing those election results with the latest reported poll produces a difference of 12.7 percentage points.
While opinion polls and actual election results are not directly equivalent, the comparison illustrates the extent to which current reported support differs from the votes the two parties received when the present Dáil was elected.
It is also important to distinguish the two government parties’ individual performances. Fine Gael has declined in the latest survey, while Fianna Fáil has recorded a modest improvement.
independent ireland also makes significant gains
Aontú is not the only smaller party attracting attention.
Independent Ireland has recorded a three-point increase to 8%, placing it level with Aontú.
The party secured 3.6% of first-preference votes in the 2024 general election.
Meanwhile, the Social Democrats remain on 9%, despite falling two points in the latest reported Red C figures.
That is still substantially above the party’s 4.8% vote share in the 2024 general election.
Taken together, the figures illustrate how support is distributed across a wider range of political parties than was traditionally the case in the Republic.
However, it would be incorrect to assume that voters leaving one particular party are necessarily transferring their support to another without evidence from voter movement or transfer analysis.
housing and the cost of living remain central political issues
The wider polling context also helps explain why the changing figures deserve attention.
In its September 2026 political analysis, Red C highlighted considerable dissatisfaction among voters over housing and living costs.
According to that research, 62% believed Ireland was not making sufficient progress on housing, while just 18% believed good progress was being made.
The research also found that approximately two-thirds of voters would support further public protests if energy costs continued to increase.
These findings demonstrate the level of public concern about issues affecting everyday life.
However, they do not establish that dissatisfaction over any particular issue caused the latest changes in party support.
could the southern polling have implications for northern ireland?
Both Sinn Féin and Aontú operate across the island of Ireland, meaning their polling performances in the Republic will also attract attention in Northern Ireland.
The next Northern Ireland Assembly election is scheduled for 2027.
Sinn Féin enters that electoral cycle as an established major party, while Aontú is seeking to expand its representation.
However, Northern Ireland has a separate electorate, different political circumstances and its own patterns of party support.
Consequently, an 8% result for Aontú in the Republic cannot be interpreted as 8% support in Northern Ireland.
The same distinction applies to Sinn Féin’s 22% figure.
a changing political landscape
The latest reported figures provide another snapshot of an increasingly fragmented political landscape in the Republic of Ireland.
Sinn Féin remains ahead of the two main government parties, while Aontú and Independent Ireland are recording considerably stronger figures than their previous general election performances.
At the same time, the combined support of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael remains substantially below their 2024 election result.
The longer-term movement is significant, although individual monthly changes of one or two percentage points must be treated cautiously because of normal polling uncertainty.
Whether current voting intentions are sustained over time will become clearer as further surveys are published.
For now, the latest figures add to the evidence of changing patterns of political support across the Republic.
Source: October 2026 Business Post/Red C polling figures as shared by Aontú leader Peadar Tóibín. Historical comparisons are based on official general election results and previously published Red C and Ireland Thinks polling.
ENDS