Aontú has climbed to a record 8% in the latest Ireland Thinks opinion poll, continuing a remarkable period of growth for the party and placing it within touching distance of the Social Democrats.
The latest Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll puts Aontú up one percentage point to 8%, a significant increase for a party which has traditionally operated well outside Ireland’s three largest political parties.
At the top of the poll, Sinn Féin has moved into first place on 21%, two points ahead of Fine Gael on 19%. Fianna Fáil sits on 17%, while the Social Democrats remain on 10%.
The figures are:
- Sinn Féin – 21% (+1)
- Fine Gael – 19% (-1)
- Fianna Fáil – 17% (+1)
- Social Democrats – 10% (no change)
- Aontú – 8% (+1)
- Independent Ireland – 7% (no change)
- Labour – 3% (no change)
- Green Party – 3% (no change)
- People Before Profit – 2% (no change)
- Independents and Others – 10% (-2)
The result represents another milestone in Aontú’s recent polling trajectory.
As recently as May, an Ireland Thinks poll had Aontú at 7%, itself part of a significant increase in support for smaller parties.
The latest 8% figure therefore puts the party at a new high in this polling series and just two percentage points behind the Social Democrats.
Aontú closing gap on established parties
Perhaps the most striking aspect of the result is Aontú’s position relative to parties which have traditionally enjoyed a much larger national profile.
At 8%, Aontú is now polling more than twice the individual support recorded for Labour or the Greens and four times that of People Before Profit.
The party is also just one percentage point ahead of Independent Ireland, meaning the two parties combined account for 15% of respondents in the latest poll.
That points towards a potentially significant bloc of voters currently looking beyond Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin and the traditional parties of the left.
A single opinion poll should, however, be treated cautiously. Poll movements of one or two percentage points can fall within normal sampling variation, and national polling does not translate directly into seats.
Nevertheless, Aontú’s result is more significant when viewed as part of a longer trend rather than in isolation. In October 2025, 6% was being reported as a new record for the party in an Ireland Thinks poll. By May this year, it had reached 7%. It has now moved to 8%.
What is driving Aontú’s rise?
Led by Meath West TD Peadar Tóibín, Aontú has attempted to occupy political ground that does not fit neatly into Ireland’s traditional left-right divide.
The party combines positions on economic and public-service issues with socially conservative policies and a strong emphasis on Irish sovereignty and nationalism.
Its growth also comes against a backdrop of considerable voter volatility.
Housing, immigration, the cost of living, energy prices and dissatisfaction with established political parties have all become major parts of Ireland’s political debate.
Recent analysis of Sinn Féin’s difficulties, for example, has highlighted the pressure the party has experienced among sections of its traditional working-class electorate over immigration and other issues.
Aontú’s challenge will now be turning growing national support into additional representation.
Under Ireland’s proportional representation system, where that support is located matters enormously. Eight per cent spread evenly throughout the country would produce a very different electoral outcome from support concentrated in particular constituencies.
Could the rise have implications north of the border?
The figures relate exclusively to voters in the Republic of Ireland and should not be interpreted as an indication that Aontú currently commands 8% support in Northern Ireland.
The political environments are substantially different.
However, Aontú is an all-Ireland party and contests elections on both sides of the border, making its southern growth potentially relevant to its longer-term development in Northern Ireland.
Recent Northern Ireland polling has placed Aontú considerably lower than its Republic of Ireland figure, demonstrating why directly transferring the 8% result northwards would be misleading.
What increasing support in the Republic could provide, however, is greater visibility, resources, media attention and momentum as the party attempts to expand.
For areas such as Newry and Armagh, where nationalist politics has traditionally been dominated by Sinn Féin and the SDLP, any sustained growth by another nationalist party will therefore be watched closely ahead of the next Assembly election.
A party moving into new territory
Aontú remains some distance behind Ireland’s three largest parties.
But 8% represents another important psychological barrier.
The gap between Aontú and Fianna Fáil now stands at nine points. The gap with the Social Democrats is just two.
The bigger question is whether 8% represents the high-water mark of a period of political dissatisfaction or another stage in Aontú’s development into a more substantial force in Irish politics.
For a party that was polling in the low single figures only a few years ago, reaching 8% nationally is a result that its political opponents can increasingly ill afford to dismiss.
ENDS